WASHINGTON – President Joe Biden and the new Democratic Congress were just sworn in, but the clock has started on the midterm elections of 2022, when voters will decide whether to push the president for two years to pursue his agenda with a friendly Congress Whether you get more time or not.
Democrats have to defend a narrow 221–211 majority in the House (218 seats are required to control) and 50–50 Senate, where losing a single seat would cost the party the chamber.
History is not on their side. Americans typically kept a check on power, and the President’s party lost House seats in almost every midterm since the 1930s. They usually suffer major losses in their first midterm.
“In 2020, House Republicans won 28 of the 29 most competitive districts by exposing the exact job-killing policies Job Biden enacted during the first week in his office,” Michael Republikms, National Republican Congressional Committee, A spokesman for the campaign branch said. House of GOP. “If House Democrats feel that 2020 was bad, they are little prepared to be stored in the 2022 cycle.”
A recent exception to that historical trend was 2002, when the country rallied around President George W. Bush in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks, and his GOP increased seats.
Democrats now hope that if Biden can succeed in fighting a different crisis – the Kovid-19 epidemic – and Democrats knock the doors after stopping for the epidemic, voters will reward him.
“Organize, organize, organize,” Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison said on Friday at MSNBC. That’s how we moved history forward and won two by-elections in Georgia. “
It is far too early, and there are more questions than answers about the next two years of American politics. Here are five big ones:
1. What does Trump do?
In his last public comment as president, Donald Trump said he would “return in some form.” Even after being impeached twice and banned from Twitter, Trump is highly popular among Republican voters and just 5 percent said he regretted voting for him after this month’s deadly insurgent riots in the Capitol.
Democrats have done their best when they can run against Trump on a ballot without him, such as in the midterms of 2018 and the runoff of the Georgia Senate, and say Republicans will have a harder time washing Trump’s hands after a democracy attack.
Tyler Law, who works in the Democratic operative house, said, “It is impossible to rerun classic suburban country club Republican bankers to run for Congress.” “Many people will have forgotten their frivolous comments within a few years. Americans will not forget the time of the raid on our Capitol caught by our terrorists in Trump gear.”
2. What is a GOP?
Even if Trump decides to spend his time on the golf course, the Republican Party overtakes him, which is putting an internal moratorium on his influence and his future.
Trump helped juice turnout from the party’s shrinking base – he has won the president’s popular vote only once in 32 years – but going with him, some want to double down on Trumpism, while others want to move forward.
Republican strategist Matt Gorman said, “There is going to be some pretty competitive if not primitive, if not ruthless, primer for the Syrian nomination.”
Nevertheless, Republicans found themselves in a similar position after Barack Obama’s 2008 election and won the middle class, and Democrats did the same after Trump’s 2016 victory.
3. All about Aadhaar?
In the past, Democrats have found it difficult to get their support in non-presidential elections, and after four years of continuous protests and donations and concerns, party voters may be eager for a break from politics.
Republicans, meanwhile, face their challenge without Trump outing his base, and it can be tough if he stokes the sentiment that Republicans betrayed him.
Major corporations said they would cut donations due to the capital riot, at least for a while, and some of its biggest funds, like the National Rifle Association, would die.
Cook Democrat Report analyst Jessica Taylor said, “Democrats have clearly cultivated their online donor base more than the Republic, but there was a lot of ranting against Trump.” “I am not sure you will have the anger of the Republicans, because Biden is not divisive in the same way.”
4. What about Biden?
Both Biden’s predecessors entered the White House with full control of Washington and faced almost immediate grassroots rebellion, culminating in “shellacking” in medieval areas as Obama made it memorable.
The women’s march was inspected just a day after Trump’s inauguration. And despite Obama beginning with an astronomical approval rating, in February 2009, a month after assuming office, the first of the conservative conflicts was seen at the Tea Party rallies held in February 2009.
Biden, strategists on both sides, are less divisive than Obama or Trump. And conservatives in a difficult time turn the president into a boogieman, who animates and enrages his base like Hillary Clinton.
Kovid-19 could make popular protests more difficult for the creation of sanctions – but the response to ongoing social distribution restrictions may also provide the spark around which a new movement catches fire.
Can Biden stop the epidemic and make the economy better, as he has promised? Will his administration face scams? Most do.
5. What does the map look like?
States are still redrawing their maps after a decade of census, so we don’t yet know what the congressional districts will look like in 2022. Congress is projected to lose seats in some populous states such as New York, while others. Like booming Texas, something is expected to be achieved.
“I think Republicans are positioned to remodel the House, but the $ 64,000 question is, ‘What does redistricting look like?”, Republican strategist Gorman asked.
Republicans have the upper hand in states after 2020, a disappointing year for Democrats that proved to be a down-ballot, but it did not disappear like it did after 2010.
Meanwhile, in the Senate, the map is set. Democrats have to defend the censors. Rafael Warnock, D-Ga. And Mark Kelly, D-series, who just win the special election, but have to run again to seek a full six-year term. He also has senators for re-election in New Hampshire and Nevada, which Biden only narrowly ran.
On the Republican side, Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Petty is retiring, which is behind an open seat in Biden, a state. Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, a staunch conservative, is up for re-election in another Biden state. And the GOP will also have to defend seats on the battlefield in North Carolina and Florida.