President Donald Trump’s online following will be smaller than now, but may be more extreme.
That is a path to be taken from researchers studying “deplatforming”, the name for the widespread form of digital nomenclature that Trump received from Twitter and much of the tech industry, with his crowd of supporters sieging the US Capitol last Wednesday , Which led to deaths. Five people including a police officer.
Trump joins a growing list of high-profile personalities – mostly on the right – who have been banned from Facebook, Reddit, Twitter or YouTube after repeatedly breaking the rules of the sites. Most of them have been banned, as is the far-right activist Milo Yiannopoulos, who conspired Alex Jones.
Previous examples have given researchers a window into whether such steps are effective. But soon as former president, Trump presents a unique case that can shatter expectations. There is some evidence that those who are banned get less web traffic and attention before they are banned, and research says that followers who rework on other social media networks after the ban are less likely I do this
“Chances are she will have a much smaller reach than she did on Twitter,” said Manoel Horta Ribeiro, a doctoral student who has researched online extremism at Swiss University, lecole Polytechnique Fédrale de Lausanne.
Without a megaphone to distribute his views on social media, Trump would have a difficult time finding new people to influence other media or build his audience. Researchers said that their most staunch admirers, however, would inevitably find room to communicate and organize.
A team in Ribeiro and others published a study in October detailing what happened after Reddit closed message boards where toxic language was common, including a particularly notorious subredit called r / The_Donald Was. Its users tried to regroup on a specific, standalone website.
Ribeiro said, “What we found is that there has been a huge decrease in activity and the number of community members when these communities move to these new platforms, but there is ample evidence that the community has become too toxic Is, “Ribeiro said.
Using linguistic analysis techniques, the researchers found that the content of the discussions changed. Trump supporters were increasingly fixated on outsiders, with topics such as “socialism” and “antifa” discussed in their posts.
Other research supports the idea that deplatforming is effective. One study found that Reddit’s ban worked in 2015, among other message boards notorious for harassment, as many users of those boards abandoned Reddit altogether and who continued to cut their hate speech. In the United Kingdom, researchers have stated that in 2018 Facebook removed an extremist group there.
But it is also possible that the research conducted so far does not cover enough area. There is no precise way of measuring the clues of someone like Jones, who was removed in 2018 by Facebook, YouTube and Spotify, saying he glorified Yiannopoulos, a young writer banned from Twitter for violence, or harassment of others Ornamented.
“Just because you’re not hearing from them, it doesn’t mean people aren’t listening,” said Barry Bradlin, University of Illinois physicist Urbana-Champagne who has studied fringe social media networks such as Gab.
For instance, Jones has dropped the list of the most listened to radio talk show hosts in the US, and in the weeks after they were banned, a New York Times analysis showed that half of his web traffic fell down. But Bradlin said more research needs to be done on the impact of him and others.
Likewise, there is little research on how much deplatforming draws attention to otherwise obscure content, or what it does to the health of the Internet at large.
In former Fox News hosts Glenn Beck and Bill O’Reilly one can speculate about Trump’s fate. Beck left the cable network after his ratings plummeted and some advertisers quit his show, and O’Reilly was dropped after a series of sexual harassment allegations.
Each has a niche audience, which is outside the mainstream of the political media.
“Bill O’Reilly, he was the most watched person on cable news for decades,” said Angelo Carusone, president of Media Matters, a liberal watchdog group that monitors conservative media. “You don’t hear about that. It has no effect. “
Carusone said what Facebook does is a big outstanding question. The company has suspended Trump from posting for the rest of his presidency, but has not said what it will do later. YouTube also has not deleted Trump’s account.
Without Facebook, Carusone said, Trump cannot effectively influence other media and there would not be an easy pipeline of new supporters – especially when, as a private citizen, he would prefer Rush Limborg’s attention to public attention Will compete with
He said, “It is difficult to think where he can go and how he can repeat.” “It has to start from scratch, and it just presents a whole set of challenges.”
For decades Trump relied on his famous name to sign lucrative license deals, but even went sour – with just one problem if he tried to build his own media business Will have to face it.
Some supporters of Trump have moved to Telegram, a messaging app set up in Russia that can accommodate large groups. Although it has been seen as a destination according to a study conducted last year, a study was conducted last year to “thin the active celebrities but the audience”. Yiannopoulos complained that he could not make money on Telegram.
The parlor, a social media app for conservatives backed by Hille Fund Scone, has struggled to stay online after vendors were cut online, citing rules against inciting violence to vendors. It is now seeking to rebuild including new web domain registrars.
“Gable is not a one-off, and the parlor is not a one-off, nor is The_Donald,” said Bradlin of the University of Illinois. “Fringe groups organizing on the Internet predate large social media networks.”